Forever Rivals

Year in and year out, we can log on to almost any sports site (ESPN.com, MLB.com, Foxsports.com) and read article after article, opinion after opinion of what baseball's collective thinkers believe to be the outcome of each on-coming season.  Sure, it's fun and the debates are always well based; we all want to know if our favourite team will make it to the playoffs, or where our icon will play next, or if we will edge out on our rivals.  It's always fun to predict.

But the thing about predicting is that you can't do it.  No one can see into the future.  We have no idea if tomorrow a key player on a team with playoff hopes will get injured and there goes the division.  Pundits are always arguing about why the Yankees will win it again this year, or why the Astros are still the worse team in baseball after nearly winning it all 7 years ago.  

After much thought, and being that it's still Spring Training, I decided to try and predict who would win each division, even though it's pointless, it's still fun.  So, from here on until Opening Day arrives, I will post the results of each division on this site. 

First, let me explain the ground bases.  Although I say predictions, these are in fact calculations based on sabermetrics.  I know that by Opening Day the roster will be trimmed down to 25 players, but these calculations are based on the 40 man roster, so results may vary.  Also, I'm taking into consideration that people on the DL are not being used for these calculations and, if anybody should happen to get injured between the time I post my predictions until the end of the season, well that also isn't taken into consideration.  I'm not setting these in stone, so feel free to comment or call me off if you think I'll get it wrong or when (and if) I get it wrong. 

Anyways, as I was saying, I took hold of every teams 40 man roster and, by using their 2011 season stats and sabermetrics, I've calculated the amount of runs the team would create this season.  Then, I would grab the pitching staff and determine how many runs they have allowed - not earned runs, runs.  Then, using the pythagorean expectation formula developed by Mr. Bill James, I came to the final win/loss percentage which I then translated into the W-L column.  I will divide the data into five columns: Wins (W), Losses (L), Percentage (Pct), Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA).

I believe that the results, sans a few cases (you will notice when you see the Red Sox), are fairly accurate.  I also must add that these are purely objective stats and I have not tainted them in anyway (if I'd have, the Yankees would lose every year and the Dodgers would win the pennant every year). 

So, without further ado, I give you my first predictions: the AL East.

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
Boston Red Sox	114	48	0.705	1316	851
New York Yankees	110	52	0.677	1235	853
Toronto Blue Jays	98	64	0.605	1406	1136
Baltimore Orioles	88	74	0.545	1170	1068
Tampa Bay Rays	79	83	0.489	976	997

First place, with a whopping 70% win rate, the Boston Red Sox.  

Following a much tense rivalry and battling it out until the end of the season, the Yankees who lose the division by four games.

The Blue Jays, despite all the hype behind Lawrie and Bautista, finish the season third.

The Orioles surprise everyone finishing with a winning season and taking fourth place.

And finally, despite everything they've done, the Rays come in last, not being able to keep up with the rest of the division.

Well, that's the first glimpse of the end of season results.  In a couple of days I will post the results for the NL East.  

Introduction

It's not always easy trying to achieve what one wants.  There's a lot of hard work involved, some luck must be applied, and you have to be at the right place at the right time.  I know that I possess the first quality.  Luck is something else: I'm lucky to know the game, I'm lucky to love, and I'm lucky that I can play it and view it.  But being at the right place and at the right time, well that's where my situation doesn't help.  

You see, I'm currently 24 years old, going on 25.  By July of this year, 2012, I'll be graduating from my major, philosophy, and I'll be beginning my trip unto doing an MBA.  I live in Peru, which, for those of you who don't know, is a country south of Venezuela, sharing the border with Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, amongst others.  Even though I am Peruvian, I was born in the US, which means I'm also American, and, lucky enough, I hold a third citizenship: English.  But this side tracks from the main story.

The thing is, being an Anglo-Peruvian-American, I have access to a lot of multicultural information.  But one thing that I love and which sadly I can not get enough is baseball.  I love baseball.  I watch it any time I can.  A couple of years ago, I began paying the yearly MLB.tv fee to watch every game available.  And, as destiny would have it, when I enrolled at University here, I found out Peru had its own, albeit little known outside the Japanese community, baseball league.  

But sadly, this is not enough.  A couple of years ago, I had to quit the university's team because of studies and work - although I've managed to return now since both have softened.  Also, since baseball is not very well known or played here in Peru, there is little to no support, so the teams are undermanaged, do not have the appropriate equipment and the fields are shamefully unkept.  But still that doesn't matter to the players here; we still go out every Sunday and play from 9 to 5.  In the long run, we still manage, and probably will for many years to come.  Then again, this is not exactly what I want to do either. 

Ever since I began to "worship" the game, I began to get as much information about it aswell.  Buying books on pitching mechanics, batting mechanics, fielding, rulebooks, management and even getting my yearly Baseball America Almanac.  And then, one day last year, I sat down and saw one of the movies that inspired me: Moneyball.  I loved the movie but I had to get the book (I love to read).  

The book gave me this other view of baseball beyond the players and what happens on the field.  It showed me that numbers also play an important role.  It showed me that faith in players attitudes can help the numbers which can help teams.  And it opened a world for me where investigation, journalism and revision are keys to understanding a game.  

That's when it hit me.  Even though I love the game, I love to play, the smell of the leather, the feel of the ball the crack of the bat; what I want more is to share my love and passion with others.  That and I would really like to work in management of one of the organizations, but that's another issue.  

So, how can I get my love out to others?  Well, after reading lots and lots of articles, studying sabermetrics and reading and re-reading moneyball, I thought that maybe analytical criticism through journalism would be the way.  And after a couple of weeks thinking about it and checking some numbers and statistics, I finally decided to start this blog site.  

So I welcome you reader to this site, Around the Basepath.  Here I will try and be as sound as possible on every topic, presenting top news from baseball, trade rumours, fantasy news, in depth analysis of a game, predictions for players, teams, standings based on sabermetric statistical analysis, etc, etc, etc. 

I hope you enjoy your stay on the site and I hope that you can feel as passionate about baseball as I do.  

Welcome,

Martin Alonso