Forever Rivals

Year in and year out, we can log on to almost any sports site (ESPN.com, MLB.com, Foxsports.com) and read article after article, opinion after opinion of what baseball's collective thinkers believe to be the outcome of each on-coming season.  Sure, it's fun and the debates are always well based; we all want to know if our favourite team will make it to the playoffs, or where our icon will play next, or if we will edge out on our rivals.  It's always fun to predict.

But the thing about predicting is that you can't do it.  No one can see into the future.  We have no idea if tomorrow a key player on a team with playoff hopes will get injured and there goes the division.  Pundits are always arguing about why the Yankees will win it again this year, or why the Astros are still the worse team in baseball after nearly winning it all 7 years ago.  

After much thought, and being that it's still Spring Training, I decided to try and predict who would win each division, even though it's pointless, it's still fun.  So, from here on until Opening Day arrives, I will post the results of each division on this site. 

First, let me explain the ground bases.  Although I say predictions, these are in fact calculations based on sabermetrics.  I know that by Opening Day the roster will be trimmed down to 25 players, but these calculations are based on the 40 man roster, so results may vary.  Also, I'm taking into consideration that people on the DL are not being used for these calculations and, if anybody should happen to get injured between the time I post my predictions until the end of the season, well that also isn't taken into consideration.  I'm not setting these in stone, so feel free to comment or call me off if you think I'll get it wrong or when (and if) I get it wrong. 

Anyways, as I was saying, I took hold of every teams 40 man roster and, by using their 2011 season stats and sabermetrics, I've calculated the amount of runs the team would create this season.  Then, I would grab the pitching staff and determine how many runs they have allowed - not earned runs, runs.  Then, using the pythagorean expectation formula developed by Mr. Bill James, I came to the final win/loss percentage which I then translated into the W-L column.  I will divide the data into five columns: Wins (W), Losses (L), Percentage (Pct), Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA).

I believe that the results, sans a few cases (you will notice when you see the Red Sox), are fairly accurate.  I also must add that these are purely objective stats and I have not tainted them in anyway (if I'd have, the Yankees would lose every year and the Dodgers would win the pennant every year). 

So, without further ado, I give you my first predictions: the AL East.

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
Boston Red Sox	114	48	0.705	1316	851
New York Yankees	110	52	0.677	1235	853
Toronto Blue Jays	98	64	0.605	1406	1136
Baltimore Orioles	88	74	0.545	1170	1068
Tampa Bay Rays	79	83	0.489	976	997

First place, with a whopping 70% win rate, the Boston Red Sox.  

Following a much tense rivalry and battling it out until the end of the season, the Yankees who lose the division by four games.

The Blue Jays, despite all the hype behind Lawrie and Bautista, finish the season third.

The Orioles surprise everyone finishing with a winning season and taking fourth place.

And finally, despite everything they've done, the Rays come in last, not being able to keep up with the rest of the division.

Well, that's the first glimpse of the end of season results.  In a couple of days I will post the results for the NL East.