Numbers vs. Intuition

Reevaluating stats through fantasy baseball and why more teams aren't doing this.

For the past four years one thing I’ve always looked forward to, besides the start of the baseball season, was the start of the fantasy baseball season.  The first time I played this extremely complicated version of a guessing game, I had no idea what to do.  The only point was getting the players that I knew I liked and using them.  Ignore the fact that they were on the DL, or were in a slump or they were just plain awful.  If I liked them, they were on my team.

I still remember the first lousy trade I made: I sent Cardinals RHP Chris Carpenter in exchange for then Dodgers-closer Eric Gagné, fresh out of surgery and heading for the DL.  My only thought was, I like Gagné, let’s get him on the team regardless.  Needless to say, I ended last in my league.  I obviously didn’t follow the business mentality of weighing pros and cons.  I just acted on impulse like any new person in the game. 

The next year I decided a different approach.  I signed up for MLB’s Fantasy League and played their three types of leagues: live draft, list draft and random draft.   I would try one team I had no control over and two others I had a degree of control.  My strategy for the live draft league was: pick a player you like, and then switch and trade in accordance to trends every two-three weeks.  The list and random drafts followed the same strategy but I had no idea who got chosen.

I lost all three leagues.

I was beginning to feel defeated.  How could so many other players be successful?  Was there a trick to master behind drafting, maybe scouting or just watching games?  There had to be some advantage that I didn’t have.

The immediate answer was that, other than watching a Wednesday or Sunday Night ESPN broadcast, I wasn’t watching any games.  I had no idea what was going on.  So, during the offseason I changed my strategy once again.

I decided on playing three live drafts, buying the 2010 Baseball of America Almanac and getting MLB.tv for the first time.  I scheduled my drafts for the last day of spring training and watched every game possible.  I reviewed stats but, at the moment, wasn’t really into sabermetrics so I had no idea what to do with most stats.  My rule was, players should have no lower than a .275 batting average and pitching staffs should have an ERA no higher than 3.60.  Random numbers but they helped me start a scouting pattern.

I ended up 6^th in two leagues and 3^rd in the last one.  It was an improvement but still not enough to help me win the league.

Then 2011 came.  I voided buying the 2011 Baseball Almanac.  If I just needed batting averages and ERAs, the Internet would provide them.  Again I crashed and burned.  The improvement I built upon held me back once again.  The formula that worked one year failed to deliver the next. 

Why?

Players are constantly changing.  Some are getting older and more powerful.  Others become more frustrated.  The famous but not so good are being replaced by the incredibly unknown.  A revolution was going on in baseball that I had failed to notice if it weren’t for a Michael Lewis’ Moneyball and the many stats that were introduced by Bill James and other sabermetricians.  I’m skeptical to say all this because I may look like a fool and another nut that’s jumped on the movie bandwagon, but the truth is that it was not the movie but the book that sold me on research. 

The movie gave me the will to want to enter the business side and front office world of baseball and gave me the personal goal to try and become a GM.  But the book showed me the value of numbers, scouting, analysis and research that has to go into every single player.  I thus decided that 2012 would be a year of more tinkering and experimenting.

The past summer (I live in Peru so summer goes from December to March) I started reading on three subjects: economics, finance and sabermetrics.  I started noticing patterns between the three topics that made me more eager to see if my experiment would work and thus motivate me more into moving in that GM direction. 

I evaluated about ten players per position, plus ten more candidates for the utility role to get an idea of stats and projections beyond batting average.  I analyzed stats for on base percentage, slugging; predicted hits and total bases.  Got a feel for what the probable averages would be. 

The same for pitching staffs.  I looked at their numbers from previous years and used any and every formula to determine their probable ERAs, hits allowed, walks, strikeout ratios. 

I had my staff: my 2012 Baseball Almanac, MLB.tv, and Internet.  I had a sense of who I would draft in what order.  If one player wasn’t available, who was the next likely candidate, independent of whether I liked him or not.  If his numbers were good, he was good enough for me.  I drafted.  Actually, I couldn’t draft the first time because of a server problem and couldn’t log on to the war room, so I created a second draft account and went from there. 

So far, the results have been spectacular.  Not only I am first in my league, I’m first in almost every category, except, curiously, for batting average.

If I could draft based on numbers, why aren’t more GMs doing what Billy Beane did?  Why aren’t managers paying attention to stuff like OBP or SLG or dERA instead of wasting their time on good names and pretty faces?  Why aren’t evaluations done to players?  Why aren’t more people employed to investigate and research and evaluate every single player?

These people are employed, though in very small numbers. 

Numbers work.  Stats tend to show an average of how a player will perform, and there are formulas to predict whether there will be or there won’t be any major fluctuations.  Of course there are other factors, but the main idea is that baseball is not just a sport, it’s a numbers game.  It’s the only professional sport where numbers DO matter and they DO tell everybody involved something. 

But I rant on.  The focus was just to show that numbers, stats and research work in baseball and help us get an idea of what might happen and when. 

Now I’m thinking: I have very few resources at hand when it comes to all this investigation and scouting process that goes behind deciding who is a better player.  One or two books.  The chance of watching up to four games at a time.  Access to stats and the ability to generate them as the necessary numbers come in.  How come baseball organizations, which hold more resources, ignore something as fundamental as this. 

In my opinion, it is a fear of change.  Change is something that many people are afraid of, regardless of whether the outcome will be for better or worse.  If the system is tampered with, then changes may occur.  And since the results of change are unpredictable, then one becomes afraid. 

Think of it along the lines of chaos theory.  Even if you can try and predict what the outcome of change may be, there is no degree of certainty that that will be the end result.  For example, owners may extend the walls of a ballpark to make it more pitcher friendly.  Predicted result: less home runs, more pitching duels.  Unpredicted results: lower ERAs, less total bases and lower slugging percentages.  And even more unpredicted results: batters start to become more patient and look for balls they can drive. 

The same happens if managers and general managers start building their teams in accordance to numbers and not names.  The immediate effect is that sales will drop because the big household names no longer appear on the roster.  That’s completely predictable. 

Now, change all the big names that have low numbers and insert the unknowns with incredible numbers.  Change happens.  You can predict that the team will get better, post better numbers and, ergo, win more games.  Managers won’t like this.  They don’t believe in numbers because they weren’t brought up to think about numbers.

Baseball is a culture, much as any religion, ideology or culture. And cultures don’t change.  If there is a line of thought, it’s meant to be followed.  Here is where the front office clashes with the guys in the dugout.  People in the dugout look for something different.  Abilities, talent, versatility, duress, poise, etc.  Front offices look to sell tickets and create a team capable of winning (i.e. Los Angeles Angels in 2012 with the signings of big names like Albert Pujols and C.J. WIlson).

If front offices really want to field championship teams, they should look for productive players with the stats to support their decision.  If there is empirical evidence to back their decision, it should be acknowledged, not ignored like managers tend to do. 

But if managers were slowly introduced into the numbers game, then they can, easily adapt to the new environment that sabermetrics is providing within baseball.  Instead of forcing change, they should be adapted into it. 

Let’s look at an example.  Billy Beane, in 2003, traded Carlos Peña because Art Howe wouldn’t use Scott Hatteberg at first base.  That’s forced change.  Never mind that Howe ignored Beane’s insistence on using numbers to evaluate players.  Howe was afraid of changing the baseball mentality because he did not believe in Beane’s ideology.  He didn’t want to compromise what he was brought up to believe against what was being said on paper.  The classic battle of a priori concepts against a posteriori evidence introduced by Kant in The Critique of Pure Reason appears under another banner. 

Any person with common sense would follow evidence.  Then again, many times we follow intuition even though the evidence we hold is more thought out.  We thus have two points of view: the game/art of baseball and the science of baseball.  It pans out just like the cases of religion vs. science, but narrowed down to a sport.

If people listened to numbers more often, then it would take the excitement out of baseball, it would probably kill the sport and the idea that anything can happen.  But, let’s go back to chaos theory.  This is not necessarily what is going to happen.  Yes, the game can become more competitive.  Yes, it can become even more predictable due to the fact that we only listen to numbers.  But within its predictability, it becomes more unpredictable. 

Numbers give us a sense of what might happen, not of what’s going to happen.   Though it may look like it, baseball is not a science.  We may think, as sabermetricians, that it is, but it is not.  Numbers are fun and help us try and discover the secret element of the game.  It’s faith versus science. 

What I’m trying to say is not that we should abandon the household names and the beauty that is the unpredictability of baseball.  The point is that, if organizations have the numbers and the resources to evaluate every single player out there, then they have a statistical advantage that allows them to try and field the most competitive team possible stats-wise. 

Forget Moneyball.  We are not trying to create a competent team with as little money as possible.  We are trying, year-in and year-out, to create a team capable of winning the World Series.  And for that, the first step, I believe is evaluating the stats of every player in order to understand who can help you improve on the field and get that ring at the end of the year.

Really Wild Wild West

Let me tell you, if you thought the stats for the NL Central were outrageous, well these take the cake.  Again I have three teams with 100 plus wins, and two topping the 120 plus wins.  That's just ridiculous.  

Thank God we don't listen to the stats, they're just an approximate number that help us get an idea of how the season is going to end and not what the final win-loss column is going to look like.  Stats, like I said when I started this blog, help us get a reasonable image of things to come.  But they do not state what is going to happen.  I use stats to get an idea of how the season might end.  This is not written in stone.  

The Giants got a huge boost with the return of Buster Posey to the lineup.  Also, having Sergio Romo back helps them in the bullpen.  Besides that, not much has changed from the Giants roster card since last season.  What I can tell is that this year there will be a lot of help from the minors.  

Speaking of minors, the Padres are poised to make a run for the playoffs this year.  Many are already discarting them over the other four teams.  Having not appeared in the postseason for six years and dealing away home town icon Adrian Gonzalez sure doesn't help.  But the Padres have a deep farm system that can help their bats.  Pitching, on the other hand, is something they might need to consider.  Most of their pitching staff look like minor leaguers and their numbers do not reflect Major League service.  

The Dodgers are up and coming.  Ever since they were bought for a record sum of $2.1 billion by Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson this past weekend, expectations have been high.  But, just because new owners are coming in does not mean that change will happen right away.  Fans must still rely on the players at hand while GM Ned Colletti can pull of trades and deals to bring in new players and field a championship team.  

Colorado on their side have been in a constant slump.  They've already dealt Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland last year and, unless Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton can put up the same numbers they're used to, then they may no make a run for the playoffs.  Albeit they do have a deep farm system which can help them out in the long run.  Count on seeing many new faces from them this year.

Finally, the surprise that was Arizona last season will come to a stop.  Arizona has not seen much action during the offseason and might not see high numbers in the win column.  They are a solid bunch but what was a well played run into the playoffs ended in defeat, defeat that could still haunt them the day the 2012 season ends.  

Team	W	L	PCT	R	RA
SF	133	29	0.818	1133	534
SD	125	37	0.772	1357	737
LAD	116	46	0.715	1424	900
COL	90	72	0.557	1175	1047
ARZ	87	75	0.538	1024	950

Don't let the numbers trick you.  Despite the low RA by San Francisco and San Diego, this is due to the fact that most of their pitching staff is either on the DL or they have a lack of Major League experience which accounts to low Earned Runs and Runs Allowed.  

This is probably going to be the wildest of divisions.  I bet that this is probably the predicted division far less from what will actually happen.  Then again, numbes don't lie.

A Game of A(ce)s

If you got the hidden message in the title, kudos to you.  It's obviously a (very) bad pun which I do intend.  I've checked the stats over and over and yes, I may be biased because I've read and seen Moneyball (not in that order) but I say the Oakland Athletics take the division this year.  

Let's start with the big picture.  The Angels have gotten their players in signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  They've completely bolstered their lineup and are the obvious favourites to win the division (if not the pennant).  A powerful bat to an already powerful lineup is complete overkill.  A strong arm and innings eater is also a valuable addition to a rotation which can hold it's own against the Phillies' Fearsome Foursome.  

The Mariners on their side have been relatively quiet.  Too quiet if you ask me.  When a team makes little to no moves in the offseason, either they are preparing to use their farm system, or they're bracing themselves for a season in which they will battle out every game and give as little ground as possible.  With Ichiro in the everyday lineup, you can never count the M's out. 

The Rangers have also made minor changes.  They've lost Wilson to the rival Angels but gained a powerful Japanese pitcher in Yu Darvish.  They've had some offseason issues with but that's also been handled.   And, to top it off, Neftali Feliz is throwing again.  The Rangers have won the AL Pennant two years in a row.  With some minor changes and adjustments and a farm system that's ready to blossom, can they make it three?  There's bound to be much competition this side of the coast.  Nevertheless, their core players aren't getting any younger and this will be a tough season

Finally, the A's.  With Billy Beane's story having been so well sold during Oscar season, many new sabermetricians have appeared - including myself.  Mr. Beane's way of dealing with players, according to the book and movie have always intrigued players, fans and anyone and everyone involved in baseball.  After a long drought without appearing in the postseason, I think  that the A's have the necessary tools to push for a playoff berth this year.  

But that'll depend on whether their pitching staff can hold it's own against the bats of the Rangers and Angels.  It will also be up to their own bats to create a comfortable cushion for their pitchers to breathe easily.  The key element of this division is the pitching.  

Yes, with Albert Pujols now in the frame, Manny Ramirez trying to make a third comeback and the whole Texas bench producing as effectively as ever, many think that it will come to homeruns and RBIs.  I think that pitchers will dominate this division this year.  And, even though the A's boast little known names on the mound and within the bullpen, they may have the necessary elements to hold off the other teams.

Let's have a look at the end of season standings.  

Team	W	L	PCT	R	RA
OAK	127	35	0.786	1286	672
SEA	121	41	0.747	1259	742
LAA	98	64	0.603	1212	984
TEX	89	73	0.547	1066	969

You can never really believe anything that you read.  Obviously, none of us can really believe that, by the end of this season, this will be an accurate measure of the games won and lost by each team.  The division will probably stand like this, but the win-loss column will vary.  Come on, where have you seen a division where everybody has a winning record?  Unless 4 out of 5 teams on another division have a losing record, then this is very unlikely, mathematically.  
With that aside, the Oakland A's take the division.  
They fight it out with the Mariners but ultimately they take second and a possible wild card.  
Despite the bolstering of their ranks, the Angels and Rangers are left out.  Yes, they are the favourites but most of the time with players adjusting to new surroundings, it takes a year or two to blossom into a strong team.  Pujols will have some problems.  Morales is on his way bak but still has to take it easy.  Darvish will look good when he plays well and terrible when he has off-days.  Neftali Feliz can pitch, but he has to pitch consistently.  
The Angels and Rangers will stumble throughout the season.  The A's and M's will play out very impressive seasons.  
Once again, don't believe the win-loss column here.  They are just results that I got from the stats on the 40-man roster based on 2011 results.  They're going to be exagerated (see Three-way battle).  Ignore these results and focus on where each team stands.  It might be as close as it gets.

The Three-way Battle

Three teams pass the 100-game wins in this division.  This, as you can pressume, is highly unreasonable, preposterous and unlikely.  But anyways, that's what you get when you use stats to check who might win the division and who will take be second, third and so on.  Since these are the results I got, I was not satisfied and had to check and re-do them, having the same outcome everytime; so I can presume that there isn't anything wrong with my stats.

In other news, with this calculation completed, we just have to move on to the Wild Wild West to figure out which five teams will make the playoffs.  Yes, I know that when I started doing these predictions I stated that I wouldn't go into the wild card spots.  But since I have stats and you can check them in every article I post, you can easily determine who would take the two wild card spots. 

The NL Central, like the NL East has been constantly dominated by one team: the Cardinals.  Until last year - that's when the Brewers challenged them.  Even though the former won, the latter has no plans to go without a fight.  We will see tight competition between these two players.

But a new team is also on the rise.  The Cincinatti Reds are a team that are getting stronger with each year passing.  With solid pitching, good players on the field, I wouldn't be surprised that the division winner be announced within the final week of the season.  The Reds are looking mighty strong.

Houston, as you can imagine, is still trying to rebuild.  Winning is no longer important.  They're going to move next year to the AL so a last pennant within the NL does not figure to be a big issue - except for the fanbase.  

Then you've got Chicago and Pittsburgh.  Both teams are trying to do some sreious rebuilding to get into any form of contention.  The main acquisition for the Cubs was Theo Epstein.  Epstein has done an amazing job for the Red Sox over the past eight years and Cubs fans can be optimistic that their franchise will get better and better.  Who knows, maybe the World Series drought could finally be over.  

The Pirates have a good core of young players.  Adding some veterans like Barajas and Burnett will help solidify their roster, but they will still be poised to battle out third, fourth and fifth with the Cubs and any other team.  

Team	W	L	PCT	R	RA
CIN	117	45	0.720	1391	868
MIL	103	59	0.639	1267	953
STL	102	60	0.630	1228	942
CHC	85	77	0.522	1201	1148
PIT	77	85	0.477	1089	1141
HOU	60	102	0.370	880	1148

Having one team win 100 games is a big feat.  Having three is ridiculous.  The final standings will probably be the same, but the number of games won and lost will be far less.  Cincinatti will win and St. Louis and Milwaukee will fight for the Wild Card.

Chicago is on the move to become a contender, but will need a couple of more seasons before it can make a push for a playoff berth.  The same applies to Pittsburgh.

Houston will end a series of disappointing seasons to finally move on to the AL West were I believe it will suffer for some time before it can start playing seriously and push to win that division.

So there you have it.  I'm just lacking the stats for the AL and NL West and we can wrap these predictions before the 2012 season's a go.  Until that, we just have to enjoy what little we have left of Spring Training.

The Youngsters' Revival

I've got to say this before I start writing anything else: the AL Central is my favourite division.  Nevermind the fact that I'm a rabid Dodger fan; I like every team within this division.  And what's not to like about them?  Every year people pick a different team to win.  It's not because of inconsistency - ok, it does play a part - but because it is so competitive and tight that last year's winners are this year's underdogs.  

Also, in each of these teams you have such iconic players.  Mauer, Verlander, Sizemore, Konerko and Butler are a few faces from each team that everyone recognizes.  What's not to like about them?  

And then there's the history.  Sans the Black Sox Scandal, these are franchises that play their hearts out year in and year out.  They create great stories.  They have great players.  Last year it was Verlander's playing style.  The addition of Fielder this year and Cabrera back at third put the Tigers as the definite candidates to win again.  But then the young Royals came along.  A team whose average age is 27 and could have a serious run at winning the division title is every writer's dream.  

And how about the Indians who a couple of years ago nearly beat Boston to the World Series?  There is not a single team on this list you can hate...unless you are a fan of one of these teams and you hate them all because of the rivalry.  But if this isn't the case, then you can see how you can always find one to root for.  Personally, I can never decide who I'm going to root for throughout the season.  Right now it's the Royals.  But I also like the White Sox.  

Anyways, I ramble on.  Here are the predictions you wanted.  

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
KC Royals	91	71	0.559	1205	1070
CLE Indians	90	72	0.556	1217	1087
DET Tigers	80	82	0.496	1044	1052
MIN Twins	59	103	0.364	936	1238
CWSox	57	105	0.354	843	1139

I assure you that I have not tampered with any of these results.  I tallied the Runs Created by each batting player against the Runs Allowed (Not Earned Runs Allowed) by each pitcher and got these results.

Detroit are the favourites to win the division if you go online to MLB.com, but I'm penning the Royals in.  Although it will be tight as you can see.  

Cleveland's behind by 1 game and Detroit by 11, but the race will probably be much closer to that.  

Minnesota and Chicago will not be serious contenders, at least according to last year's stats.  In both cases, injuries and lack of decent production have put them there but it's also a matter that their pitchers have given up a lot of runs.  

I cannot emphasize enough that these predictions are results of statistical analysis.  They are not random picks.  The Wins, Losses, PCT can all be checked using Bill James' formulae.  

As you can see, this will probably be the tightest division - as it's always been the case.  Let's see if I can find a division in which a (probable) winner can be less clearly determined. 

Realigning baseball

At the end of last season (2011), the Houston Astros were bought by Jim Crane.  And, as so often occurs when new management takes over an already popular organization, changes happen.  Some are accepted by the general population.  Others are met with disapproval.  And many more just leave us scratching our heads.  But, like them or not, these changes are goung to happen.  The old motto - 'sink or swim' - comes to mind.  If yoou are to survive in a market, you have to adapt.  Adaptation to your new surroundings which not only affect you, but the rest of the competition.  The changes the Astros are involved will, like a stone thrown into a pond, stir up ripples that will affect other teams.

You see, many fans around baseball - especially Astros' fans, I pressume - were afraid of one of the clauses of selling the team: relocation.  Bye bye, Houston.  Thanks for the memories.  Time to move to greener pastures.  Once again, a celebrated franchise moves on to a new city (remember the Titans, I mean Oilers?).  The loss of a team can be devastating for the market of one city and a boom for another's.  

But hold your horses.  In this case, the relocation of the Astros doesn't involve moving to a new city.  Just like the Brewers in 1998, Houston is taking a similar step, they are realigning.  A move to the American League (AL) West might be enough to restructure the franchise. The Angels, Mariners, Athletics and Rangers are now the new rivals.  Pitchers in the batter's box are a distant memory.  Instead of fighting five teams for a playoff spot, it's now four.  These are some of the changes that are goung to ttake place.  The only question remaining is: what happens to the rest of the league?

Three things are going to be questioned because of this move.  1.  What is the new value of Interleague play?  2.  Do we remove the Designated Hitter (DH) for the AL or does the National League (NL) implement it?  3.  Will the League expand?  And these may very well be the questions at the tip of the iceberg.  Because of this realignment, baseball is going to change.

Interleague play is now a day-to-day issue.  Unless a week long bye similar to the National Football League (NFL) is used and more off days are introduced, the there is no way to avoid it.  And even if this were implemented, there would still be some problems.  But this is not what I want to focus on.  This season (2012) will be the last season where Interleague games will take place for a couple of weeks in May and June.  The last season where rare meetings occurred.  They are now a thing of everyday.  So what changes?  The value of these games.

In an 162 game season, every team must try to get as much wins as possible; especially against division teams.  But with everyday Interleague games, these take more importance.  Who plays who can change the whole playoff scenario.  Imagine a clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Detroit Tigers.  If St. Louis wins, then the rest of the AL Central can move up, supposing that the other teams in the AL Central are playing themselves or other AL teams.  At the same time, NL Central teams play teams from their league and fail to move up.  St. Louis and the rest of the AL Central can move up, whilst the others can't.  Who you play matters much more.  Supposing you're the underdog of your league and you're playing the World Series pick from the other league, then you're screwed.  Interleague is much more important now, aswell as when these games take place.

This brings me to my second point: the DH.  Major League Baseball (MLB) Rule 6.10 states that a position player that does not take the field can bat in place of the pitcher.  Also, during Interleague play, the rules from the league of the host team take effect.  So, when the Yankees visit the Mets, C.C. Sabathia must graba a bat and Raul Ibanez must warm the bench.  If the opposite happens, then it's Johan Santana sitting in between innings and somebody else will move to the plate.  This rare event is sometimes a well deserved break for pitchers and allows other players to take the field or bat.  

But everyday Interleague will change that too.  The sight of a DH in the NL will be much more common.  Watching AL pitchers hack away will also increase.  A compromise will then have to be reached.  Do we use the DH throughout the MLB or do pitchers start heading for the batting cages?  Throughout the minor leagues, the All-Star game and International competitions such as the World Baseball Classic, the DH is used regardless of team affiliation, stadium, or other factors.  Personally, I am not a fan of the DH rule.  It does provide an element of interest for the playoffs but it's not something I would miss if gone.  What I do believe will happen, sadly, is that the DH will be forced upon the NL.  If everybody else uses it, then all will be made to use it.

The other, more appealing option for the average fan will be eliminating the DH.  AL teams will argue against this because of health concerns to pitchers (like Chien Ming Wang's injury while running the bases during Interleague play, ending his career with the Yankees).  Because of the DH being used everywhere else sans the NL, then I don't think AL pitchers will be batting any time soon.

Finally, expansion teams.  Where do we go now?  Already baseball writers are reporting on rumours of an expansion team in Mexico.  Aside from whether you agree or not, expansion is a likely step for MLB if: regular Interleague fails and no agreement can be reached on the DH rule.  Other factors which will affect this are the Astros move and the addition of a new wild card spot in the playoffs.  What the sport is trying to do is create (or motivate) competition for the teams.  Interleague game value will rise.  Having a five team AL West increases the chances for a playoff spot.  A six team NL Central, was more competitive, but less charming than a four team AL West.

If regular Interleague games don't work for any reason, then expansion IS going to happen.  Adding two teams per league is a likely event.  The downside is that we're back to square one. Instead of having one six-team conference, we now have two.  This would reverse what Commisioner Selig has done and further regress his attempts to have a more competitive League.  Then what?  Do we add four teams instead?  How about six teams to have six six-team divisions?  Sounds very stressful.  But in the long run, it might happen.  But then the playoffs would have to be expanded once again.  Money and time are then a factor.

I believe that within the next couple of years we will hear more stories on expansion.  There will be new teams in the league.  When they arrive is another matter.

Moving the Astros is not only going to change the landscape of how competitive the game is.  It shows that there are plans to redesign the American baseball world.  The three things I've explained are what I think to be the first of a long list of changes planned for the future.  But Interleague value, the use of the DH and expansion teams are topics that will be heard of more often by the end of this season.

Fifth Time's the Charm

So, after a couple of days working through the stat sheets of the NL East, I finally have a solid idea of how this division will look come September.  It may not be ideal, or what many fans and pundits expect but, hey, stats are stats and, even though on paper they say one thing, at the end of the day players and managers can disregard them.  What happens on the field is (sometimes) more important than what is written down - although the latter can help us spot trends and give some comfort when we see who's at bat or on the mound.

Anyways, when first trying to calculate the results for the NL East, I came upon a problem.  After inputting the stats from every position player and the stats for every pitcher, I noticed that in the final calculation all teams ended with a losing record.  Now that just sounds insane!  When have we ever seen a whole division with a losing record (if you know of a year and division, please tell me).  This is not the NFL's AFC West division were a .500 mark gets you into the playoffs.  Baseball is a game where winning a division is not based on who racks less losses but more wins.  A sub .500 mark isn't going to cut it.  

So, I decided to redo the numbers using the earned runs instead of runs allowed stat.  Still, it did not give an accurate picture.  So where was I missing.  I went through my report on the AL East and then it hit me.  The DH rule.  The AL doesn't account for batting stats for pitchers.  They have a special spot reserved for a position player that is not on the field.  So I had to redo all the stats for every team adding all the pitchers batting stats to the position players stats.  The results were clearly better than the first two attempts.  I regressed back to using Runs allowed instead of Earned Runs and even better.  

It took me a while but now I finally got the final tally on the end of season predictions for the NL East.  Here you go:

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
PHI	109	53	0.673	1061	739
WAS	96	66	0.591	1037	863
NYM	80	82	0.491	1076	1095
MIA	73	89	0.452	967	1065
ATL	65	97	0.401	741	906

So, for a fifth straight year, the Phillies win the division with over a 100 wins.  Impressive for a team who have one of the best pitching arsenals the sport has seen in years.  If the fearsome foursome can keep healthy and a uninjured Ryan Howard and Chase Utley can return, then it wouldn't surprise me to see them keep first easily.

Surprisingly, Washington comes second.  Jumping from last to second is not bad for a team that counts with an incredible pitching prospect in Stephen Strasburg and the number 1 prospect in baseball: Bryce Harper.  Let's see if they're true to the stat sheets.

Miami imrpoved with the addition of Jose Reyes, but couldn't surpass the Mets who take third barely getting to the .500 mark.  These two teams will battle for third and fourth but ultimately it will be New York taking position behind the Nationals.

Finally, from first to worst.  Atlanta's end of season skid last year will continue and probably won't stop until late in the season where things are harder to turn around.

OK, so that's the NL East for you.  Again we have strong dominance from the Phillies.  Meanwhile, the rest of the division is shifting which could mean that the Phillies moment in the sun may soon be over.  

Join me on Tuesday when I come back with the predictions for the AL Central.  Until then, enjoy Spring Training.  

Forever Rivals

Year in and year out, we can log on to almost any sports site (ESPN.com, MLB.com, Foxsports.com) and read article after article, opinion after opinion of what baseball's collective thinkers believe to be the outcome of each on-coming season.  Sure, it's fun and the debates are always well based; we all want to know if our favourite team will make it to the playoffs, or where our icon will play next, or if we will edge out on our rivals.  It's always fun to predict.

But the thing about predicting is that you can't do it.  No one can see into the future.  We have no idea if tomorrow a key player on a team with playoff hopes will get injured and there goes the division.  Pundits are always arguing about why the Yankees will win it again this year, or why the Astros are still the worse team in baseball after nearly winning it all 7 years ago.  

After much thought, and being that it's still Spring Training, I decided to try and predict who would win each division, even though it's pointless, it's still fun.  So, from here on until Opening Day arrives, I will post the results of each division on this site. 

First, let me explain the ground bases.  Although I say predictions, these are in fact calculations based on sabermetrics.  I know that by Opening Day the roster will be trimmed down to 25 players, but these calculations are based on the 40 man roster, so results may vary.  Also, I'm taking into consideration that people on the DL are not being used for these calculations and, if anybody should happen to get injured between the time I post my predictions until the end of the season, well that also isn't taken into consideration.  I'm not setting these in stone, so feel free to comment or call me off if you think I'll get it wrong or when (and if) I get it wrong. 

Anyways, as I was saying, I took hold of every teams 40 man roster and, by using their 2011 season stats and sabermetrics, I've calculated the amount of runs the team would create this season.  Then, I would grab the pitching staff and determine how many runs they have allowed - not earned runs, runs.  Then, using the pythagorean expectation formula developed by Mr. Bill James, I came to the final win/loss percentage which I then translated into the W-L column.  I will divide the data into five columns: Wins (W), Losses (L), Percentage (Pct), Runs Scored (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA).

I believe that the results, sans a few cases (you will notice when you see the Red Sox), are fairly accurate.  I also must add that these are purely objective stats and I have not tainted them in anyway (if I'd have, the Yankees would lose every year and the Dodgers would win the pennant every year). 

So, without further ado, I give you my first predictions: the AL East.

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
Boston Red Sox	114	48	0.705	1316	851
New York Yankees	110	52	0.677	1235	853
Toronto Blue Jays	98	64	0.605	1406	1136
Baltimore Orioles	88	74	0.545	1170	1068
Tampa Bay Rays	79	83	0.489	976	997

First place, with a whopping 70% win rate, the Boston Red Sox.  

Following a much tense rivalry and battling it out until the end of the season, the Yankees who lose the division by four games.

The Blue Jays, despite all the hype behind Lawrie and Bautista, finish the season third.

The Orioles surprise everyone finishing with a winning season and taking fourth place.

And finally, despite everything they've done, the Rays come in last, not being able to keep up with the rest of the division.

Well, that's the first glimpse of the end of season results.  In a couple of days I will post the results for the NL East.  

Introduction

It's not always easy trying to achieve what one wants.  There's a lot of hard work involved, some luck must be applied, and you have to be at the right place at the right time.  I know that I possess the first quality.  Luck is something else: I'm lucky to know the game, I'm lucky to love, and I'm lucky that I can play it and view it.  But being at the right place and at the right time, well that's where my situation doesn't help.  

You see, I'm currently 24 years old, going on 25.  By July of this year, 2012, I'll be graduating from my major, philosophy, and I'll be beginning my trip unto doing an MBA.  I live in Peru, which, for those of you who don't know, is a country south of Venezuela, sharing the border with Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, amongst others.  Even though I am Peruvian, I was born in the US, which means I'm also American, and, lucky enough, I hold a third citizenship: English.  But this side tracks from the main story.

The thing is, being an Anglo-Peruvian-American, I have access to a lot of multicultural information.  But one thing that I love and which sadly I can not get enough is baseball.  I love baseball.  I watch it any time I can.  A couple of years ago, I began paying the yearly MLB.tv fee to watch every game available.  And, as destiny would have it, when I enrolled at University here, I found out Peru had its own, albeit little known outside the Japanese community, baseball league.  

But sadly, this is not enough.  A couple of years ago, I had to quit the university's team because of studies and work - although I've managed to return now since both have softened.  Also, since baseball is not very well known or played here in Peru, there is little to no support, so the teams are undermanaged, do not have the appropriate equipment and the fields are shamefully unkept.  But still that doesn't matter to the players here; we still go out every Sunday and play from 9 to 5.  In the long run, we still manage, and probably will for many years to come.  Then again, this is not exactly what I want to do either. 

Ever since I began to "worship" the game, I began to get as much information about it aswell.  Buying books on pitching mechanics, batting mechanics, fielding, rulebooks, management and even getting my yearly Baseball America Almanac.  And then, one day last year, I sat down and saw one of the movies that inspired me: Moneyball.  I loved the movie but I had to get the book (I love to read).  

The book gave me this other view of baseball beyond the players and what happens on the field.  It showed me that numbers also play an important role.  It showed me that faith in players attitudes can help the numbers which can help teams.  And it opened a world for me where investigation, journalism and revision are keys to understanding a game.  

That's when it hit me.  Even though I love the game, I love to play, the smell of the leather, the feel of the ball the crack of the bat; what I want more is to share my love and passion with others.  That and I would really like to work in management of one of the organizations, but that's another issue.  

So, how can I get my love out to others?  Well, after reading lots and lots of articles, studying sabermetrics and reading and re-reading moneyball, I thought that maybe analytical criticism through journalism would be the way.  And after a couple of weeks thinking about it and checking some numbers and statistics, I finally decided to start this blog site.  

So I welcome you reader to this site, Around the Basepath.  Here I will try and be as sound as possible on every topic, presenting top news from baseball, trade rumours, fantasy news, in depth analysis of a game, predictions for players, teams, standings based on sabermetric statistical analysis, etc, etc, etc. 

I hope you enjoy your stay on the site and I hope that you can feel as passionate about baseball as I do.  

Welcome,

Martin Alonso