A Game of A(ce)s

If you got the hidden message in the title, kudos to you.  It's obviously a (very) bad pun which I do intend.  I've checked the stats over and over and yes, I may be biased because I've read and seen Moneyball (not in that order) but I say the Oakland Athletics take the division this year.  

Let's start with the big picture.  The Angels have gotten their players in signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  They've completely bolstered their lineup and are the obvious favourites to win the division (if not the pennant).  A powerful bat to an already powerful lineup is complete overkill.  A strong arm and innings eater is also a valuable addition to a rotation which can hold it's own against the Phillies' Fearsome Foursome.  

The Mariners on their side have been relatively quiet.  Too quiet if you ask me.  When a team makes little to no moves in the offseason, either they are preparing to use their farm system, or they're bracing themselves for a season in which they will battle out every game and give as little ground as possible.  With Ichiro in the everyday lineup, you can never count the M's out. 

The Rangers have also made minor changes.  They've lost Wilson to the rival Angels but gained a powerful Japanese pitcher in Yu Darvish.  They've had some offseason issues with but that's also been handled.   And, to top it off, Neftali Feliz is throwing again.  The Rangers have won the AL Pennant two years in a row.  With some minor changes and adjustments and a farm system that's ready to blossom, can they make it three?  There's bound to be much competition this side of the coast.  Nevertheless, their core players aren't getting any younger and this will be a tough season

Finally, the A's.  With Billy Beane's story having been so well sold during Oscar season, many new sabermetricians have appeared - including myself.  Mr. Beane's way of dealing with players, according to the book and movie have always intrigued players, fans and anyone and everyone involved in baseball.  After a long drought without appearing in the postseason, I think  that the A's have the necessary tools to push for a playoff berth this year.  

But that'll depend on whether their pitching staff can hold it's own against the bats of the Rangers and Angels.  It will also be up to their own bats to create a comfortable cushion for their pitchers to breathe easily.  The key element of this division is the pitching.  

Yes, with Albert Pujols now in the frame, Manny Ramirez trying to make a third comeback and the whole Texas bench producing as effectively as ever, many think that it will come to homeruns and RBIs.  I think that pitchers will dominate this division this year.  And, even though the A's boast little known names on the mound and within the bullpen, they may have the necessary elements to hold off the other teams.

Let's have a look at the end of season standings.  

Team	W	L	PCT	R	RA
OAK	127	35	0.786	1286	672
SEA	121	41	0.747	1259	742
LAA	98	64	0.603	1212	984
TEX	89	73	0.547	1066	969

You can never really believe anything that you read.  Obviously, none of us can really believe that, by the end of this season, this will be an accurate measure of the games won and lost by each team.  The division will probably stand like this, but the win-loss column will vary.  Come on, where have you seen a division where everybody has a winning record?  Unless 4 out of 5 teams on another division have a losing record, then this is very unlikely, mathematically.  
With that aside, the Oakland A's take the division.  
They fight it out with the Mariners but ultimately they take second and a possible wild card.  
Despite the bolstering of their ranks, the Angels and Rangers are left out.  Yes, they are the favourites but most of the time with players adjusting to new surroundings, it takes a year or two to blossom into a strong team.  Pujols will have some problems.  Morales is on his way bak but still has to take it easy.  Darvish will look good when he plays well and terrible when he has off-days.  Neftali Feliz can pitch, but he has to pitch consistently.  
The Angels and Rangers will stumble throughout the season.  The A's and M's will play out very impressive seasons.  
Once again, don't believe the win-loss column here.  They are just results that I got from the stats on the 40-man roster based on 2011 results.  They're going to be exagerated (see Three-way battle).  Ignore these results and focus on where each team stands.  It might be as close as it gets.