The Youngsters' Revival

I've got to say this before I start writing anything else: the AL Central is my favourite division.  Nevermind the fact that I'm a rabid Dodger fan; I like every team within this division.  And what's not to like about them?  Every year people pick a different team to win.  It's not because of inconsistency - ok, it does play a part - but because it is so competitive and tight that last year's winners are this year's underdogs.  

Also, in each of these teams you have such iconic players.  Mauer, Verlander, Sizemore, Konerko and Butler are a few faces from each team that everyone recognizes.  What's not to like about them?  

And then there's the history.  Sans the Black Sox Scandal, these are franchises that play their hearts out year in and year out.  They create great stories.  They have great players.  Last year it was Verlander's playing style.  The addition of Fielder this year and Cabrera back at third put the Tigers as the definite candidates to win again.  But then the young Royals came along.  A team whose average age is 27 and could have a serious run at winning the division title is every writer's dream.  

And how about the Indians who a couple of years ago nearly beat Boston to the World Series?  There is not a single team on this list you can hate...unless you are a fan of one of these teams and you hate them all because of the rivalry.  But if this isn't the case, then you can see how you can always find one to root for.  Personally, I can never decide who I'm going to root for throughout the season.  Right now it's the Royals.  But I also like the White Sox.  

Anyways, I ramble on.  Here are the predictions you wanted.  

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
KC Royals	91	71	0.559	1205	1070
CLE Indians	90	72	0.556	1217	1087
DET Tigers	80	82	0.496	1044	1052
MIN Twins	59	103	0.364	936	1238
CWSox	57	105	0.354	843	1139

I assure you that I have not tampered with any of these results.  I tallied the Runs Created by each batting player against the Runs Allowed (Not Earned Runs Allowed) by each pitcher and got these results.

Detroit are the favourites to win the division if you go online to MLB.com, but I'm penning the Royals in.  Although it will be tight as you can see.  

Cleveland's behind by 1 game and Detroit by 11, but the race will probably be much closer to that.  

Minnesota and Chicago will not be serious contenders, at least according to last year's stats.  In both cases, injuries and lack of decent production have put them there but it's also a matter that their pitchers have given up a lot of runs.  

I cannot emphasize enough that these predictions are results of statistical analysis.  They are not random picks.  The Wins, Losses, PCT can all be checked using Bill James' formulae.  

As you can see, this will probably be the tightest division - as it's always been the case.  Let's see if I can find a division in which a (probable) winner can be less clearly determined.