Fifth Time's the Charm

So, after a couple of days working through the stat sheets of the NL East, I finally have a solid idea of how this division will look come September.  It may not be ideal, or what many fans and pundits expect but, hey, stats are stats and, even though on paper they say one thing, at the end of the day players and managers can disregard them.  What happens on the field is (sometimes) more important than what is written down - although the latter can help us spot trends and give some comfort when we see who's at bat or on the mound.

Anyways, when first trying to calculate the results for the NL East, I came upon a problem.  After inputting the stats from every position player and the stats for every pitcher, I noticed that in the final calculation all teams ended with a losing record.  Now that just sounds insane!  When have we ever seen a whole division with a losing record (if you know of a year and division, please tell me).  This is not the NFL's AFC West division were a .500 mark gets you into the playoffs.  Baseball is a game where winning a division is not based on who racks less losses but more wins.  A sub .500 mark isn't going to cut it.  

So, I decided to redo the numbers using the earned runs instead of runs allowed stat.  Still, it did not give an accurate picture.  So where was I missing.  I went through my report on the AL East and then it hit me.  The DH rule.  The AL doesn't account for batting stats for pitchers.  They have a special spot reserved for a position player that is not on the field.  So I had to redo all the stats for every team adding all the pitchers batting stats to the position players stats.  The results were clearly better than the first two attempts.  I regressed back to using Runs allowed instead of Earned Runs and even better.  

It took me a while but now I finally got the final tally on the end of season predictions for the NL East.  Here you go:

Team	W	L	PCT	RS	RA
PHI	109	53	0.673	1061	739
WAS	96	66	0.591	1037	863
NYM	80	82	0.491	1076	1095
MIA	73	89	0.452	967	1065
ATL	65	97	0.401	741	906

So, for a fifth straight year, the Phillies win the division with over a 100 wins.  Impressive for a team who have one of the best pitching arsenals the sport has seen in years.  If the fearsome foursome can keep healthy and a uninjured Ryan Howard and Chase Utley can return, then it wouldn't surprise me to see them keep first easily.

Surprisingly, Washington comes second.  Jumping from last to second is not bad for a team that counts with an incredible pitching prospect in Stephen Strasburg and the number 1 prospect in baseball: Bryce Harper.  Let's see if they're true to the stat sheets.

Miami imrpoved with the addition of Jose Reyes, but couldn't surpass the Mets who take third barely getting to the .500 mark.  These two teams will battle for third and fourth but ultimately it will be New York taking position behind the Nationals.

Finally, from first to worst.  Atlanta's end of season skid last year will continue and probably won't stop until late in the season where things are harder to turn around.

OK, so that's the NL East for you.  Again we have strong dominance from the Phillies.  Meanwhile, the rest of the division is shifting which could mean that the Phillies moment in the sun may soon be over.  

Join me on Tuesday when I come back with the predictions for the AL Central.  Until then, enjoy Spring Training.